The project aims to qualify how systems may adapt during the phase of disorder resolution (reparation, reconstruction, reorganization) which follows hazard occurrence. Adaptations taken into account are mainly those which imply sensitivity reduction of exposed assets (vulnerability reduction, assets relocation). Measures such as damage pooling (through insurance or solidarity), or hazard mitigation (in intensity or frequency) also impact the resilience of the territory but the analysis of their exact influence is out of the scope of this project.
The project will focus on flood hazard, through two case studies: the Var catchment and the Aude catchment. Two scales will be considered: the territory scale (local administrations, flood management structures), and the assets scale (dwellings, activities, farms).
The project is organized in 3 steps :
– Task 1: Methodological developments for long-run feedbacks to observe adaptations during the phase of disorder resolution. Implementation of the methodology on the two cases studies (Var and Aude), at the two scales studied (territory and assets) ;
– Task 2: Cross-analysis of data collected during task 1, to understand what are the factors which allow or, disallow, encourage or discourage strategies of adaptation during the phase of disorder resolution. This analysis will focus on territory scale ;
– Task 3: Modeling of assets vulnerability, based on data collected during task 1, analyzed in task 2. This task will more focus on assets scale, to better understand dynamic aspects that may occur at this scale during the phase of disorder resolution.